I love the way it shows us the most fundamental error in creationists' logic, 'lack of evidence'.
I just wish I had the creativity to make something like this.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Faith vs. Evidence
Another good, well edited and cunning video from Qualiasoup. I highly recommend all the videos from that channel on youtube. I have already subscribed to the channel. You should too.
Friday, November 03, 2006
The Monty Hall Problem
Imagine yourself on a game show. You are the contestant and you have to pick a door out of the three doors in front of you. The host says that there is a prize behind only one of these doors. Now, you choose a door. The host then opens a door which is not the door you've chosen. Voila!! there is no prize behind that door. After all this drama, the host gives you a choice. you can keep your door, or you can change your choice to the other unopenned door. Faced with this seemingly ambiguous situation, what will you do? Which choice will give you a better chance of winning?
Now, for most people, the intiutive answer will be that it doesn't matter, because there are two doors and there is an equal probability that the prize is behind one particular or the other. So, the answer is 50% for each case.
As you may have guessed that this answer is wrong. And here is the explaination:
Suppose, instead of 3 doors there are a 100 doors. You select one of these 100 doors. The probability that you chose the 'prize' door is 1%. And the probability that you didn't choose the prize door is 99%. Out of the 99 unchosen doors, the host opens 98 doors, non of them containing the prize. With this fact in mind, we can speculate what is happening. The probability of the prize being contained in one of the 99 doors was 99%, but now we know that 98 of those doors do not contain the prize, but this does not change the fact that your chosen door's probability of being the 'prize' door is 1%. What has changed is the probability of the lone remaining door among the unchosen doors. Now its probability is 99% of being the 'prize' door. So, clearly, you'll be much better off changing your choice rather than staying with your current choice.
And what is true for 100 doors is true for 3 doors as well. Here, the probability of winning is 66.66% if you change your choice.
Some things are not what they appear at first.
Now, for most people, the intiutive answer will be that it doesn't matter, because there are two doors and there is an equal probability that the prize is behind one particular or the other. So, the answer is 50% for each case.
As you may have guessed that this answer is wrong. And here is the explaination:
Suppose, instead of 3 doors there are a 100 doors. You select one of these 100 doors. The probability that you chose the 'prize' door is 1%. And the probability that you didn't choose the prize door is 99%. Out of the 99 unchosen doors, the host opens 98 doors, non of them containing the prize. With this fact in mind, we can speculate what is happening. The probability of the prize being contained in one of the 99 doors was 99%, but now we know that 98 of those doors do not contain the prize, but this does not change the fact that your chosen door's probability of being the 'prize' door is 1%. What has changed is the probability of the lone remaining door among the unchosen doors. Now its probability is 99% of being the 'prize' door. So, clearly, you'll be much better off changing your choice rather than staying with your current choice.
And what is true for 100 doors is true for 3 doors as well. Here, the probability of winning is 66.66% if you change your choice.
Some things are not what they appear at first.
Friday, March 24, 2006
One Liners; for your speech.
Well, I have just got free after my exams and I am left with nothing to do yet again. So what should I do this weekend? The worst possible thing to do just after exams is to read books. And I did exactly that and stumbled upon a masterpiece: 'How to use The Best One Liners in your speeches' by Mitch Murray. Well, to explain breifly, this book contains hundereds of funny one liners. Some of them are given below. Do buy this book if you like them. Believe me, you'll find each and every one to be as funny as these ones:
Bad News
It's easy to say business is improving... Saying it with a straight face is a problem.
These figures prove that not all the sufferings are in the third world.
This year, in time for our AGM, we've decided to have our Annual Report written by a professional... Stephen King.
Revenge
Ladies and gentlemen, I've always believed that if you can't say something good about someone, you're probably talking about Stan Pearce.
He's an only child...his parents decided to stop while they still outnumbered him.
He's still his own worst enemy, but the competition's getting stiffer all the time.
If you lend him money, you'll never see him again... and it's worth it!
Booze 'n Boozers
One of the best things you can do is to drink a lot when you get old. That way, every time you go to kick the bucket, you miss.
Most of the time, he doesn't drink anything stronger than pop...mind you, Pop'll drink anything!
I'm perfectly alright. You're the one who is spinning around.
For those who are interested, there's a new support group: "Teetotalers Anonymous". If you feel like going on the wagon, you call a Freephone number and two drunks come over and try to talk you out of it.
Bores
Due to popular demand Sidney Stafford will not be making a speech tonight.
When he's in full flow, all I do is say 'Wow!' every now and then...it's not very clever, but it fits a yawn perfectly.
He'd make a great Governor of the Bank of England...whenever he speaks, everyone's interest rate drops.
OK, so his mind wanders a bit, but be fair...wouldn't you if you were in that body?
Competitors
Do you know how many people work there?...about one in four!
Their logo ought to be rhinoceros...it's thick-skinned, short-sighted and charges a lot.
Old Employees
He's worth a fortune...he must be...he's got silver in his hair, gold in his teeth, rare stones in his kidney, lead in his feet...and gas in his stomach.
He's been around so long....
He can remember when the Dead Sea was still alive.
He can remember when rainbows only came in black and white.
He can remember when Heinz had only one variety.
He can remember when doctors made home deliveries, and pizza retaurants didn't.
Openers
I'm your Master of Ceremonies for the evening, and frankly, there's not an awful lot you can do about that.
Actually, I've been asked to speak no longer than three minutes. Three minutes!...I normally need more than that just for applause.
Ladies and gentlemen, and any lawyers in the audience...
As they tell their speakers at Shell...if you don't strike oil in three minutes, stop boring!
Overweight
I don't want to say he's fat...but I will! - he's fat!
They say that no man is an island...let's face it, Phil Gorman comes pretty close.
He's certainly a big eater...who else do you know who owns a wide-screen microwave.
He's a bit depressed at the moment...he read the FT this morning and suddenly ralised that the Economy is in better shape than he is.
Rich and Poor
There's something rather disturbing about finding your lawyer's name in the Sunday Times 'Britain's Richest 500'.
Last week he went out to buy a couple of golf clubs... Wentworth and St Andrews!
I'm not in the least worried about my overdraft...Believe me, it's big enough to look after itself.
It's a real pleasure to be standing here, surrounded by the 'creme de la skimmed milk'.
These are only a few of the one liners and they are in no way the best of them. So buy the book if you need some good laughing material.
Bad News
It's easy to say business is improving... Saying it with a straight face is a problem.
These figures prove that not all the sufferings are in the third world.
This year, in time for our AGM, we've decided to have our Annual Report written by a professional... Stephen King.
Revenge
Ladies and gentlemen, I've always believed that if you can't say something good about someone, you're probably talking about Stan Pearce.
He's an only child...his parents decided to stop while they still outnumbered him.
He's still his own worst enemy, but the competition's getting stiffer all the time.
If you lend him money, you'll never see him again... and it's worth it!
Booze 'n Boozers
One of the best things you can do is to drink a lot when you get old. That way, every time you go to kick the bucket, you miss.
Most of the time, he doesn't drink anything stronger than pop...mind you, Pop'll drink anything!
I'm perfectly alright. You're the one who is spinning around.
For those who are interested, there's a new support group: "Teetotalers Anonymous". If you feel like going on the wagon, you call a Freephone number and two drunks come over and try to talk you out of it.
Bores
Due to popular demand Sidney Stafford will not be making a speech tonight.
When he's in full flow, all I do is say 'Wow!' every now and then...it's not very clever, but it fits a yawn perfectly.
He'd make a great Governor of the Bank of England...whenever he speaks, everyone's interest rate drops.
OK, so his mind wanders a bit, but be fair...wouldn't you if you were in that body?
Competitors
Do you know how many people work there?...about one in four!
Their logo ought to be rhinoceros...it's thick-skinned, short-sighted and charges a lot.
Old Employees
He's worth a fortune...he must be...he's got silver in his hair, gold in his teeth, rare stones in his kidney, lead in his feet...and gas in his stomach.
He's been around so long....
He can remember when the Dead Sea was still alive.
He can remember when rainbows only came in black and white.
He can remember when Heinz had only one variety.
He can remember when doctors made home deliveries, and pizza retaurants didn't.
Openers
I'm your Master of Ceremonies for the evening, and frankly, there's not an awful lot you can do about that.
Actually, I've been asked to speak no longer than three minutes. Three minutes!...I normally need more than that just for applause.
Ladies and gentlemen, and any lawyers in the audience...
As they tell their speakers at Shell...if you don't strike oil in three minutes, stop boring!
Overweight
I don't want to say he's fat...but I will! - he's fat!
They say that no man is an island...let's face it, Phil Gorman comes pretty close.
He's certainly a big eater...who else do you know who owns a wide-screen microwave.
He's a bit depressed at the moment...he read the FT this morning and suddenly ralised that the Economy is in better shape than he is.
Rich and Poor
There's something rather disturbing about finding your lawyer's name in the Sunday Times 'Britain's Richest 500'.
Last week he went out to buy a couple of golf clubs... Wentworth and St Andrews!
I'm not in the least worried about my overdraft...Believe me, it's big enough to look after itself.
It's a real pleasure to be standing here, surrounded by the 'creme de la skimmed milk'.
These are only a few of the one liners and they are in no way the best of them. So buy the book if you need some good laughing material.
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